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Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation

169K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.0%Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 54.2%Based on 169K games
0%54.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 54.2%
Outcome Distribution
49.7%8.5%41.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...cxd5
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation
Analyzen=169K
Avg Length41 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate8.5%

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 54.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.8% and 54.2%), based on 169K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.5% win rate (85 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.4% win rate (377 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.8% win rate (881 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.8% win rate (2,481 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.6% win rate (5,737 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.7% win rate (15,465 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.7% win rate (36,636 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.1% win rate (69,221 games)
  • 2500+: 50.8% win rate (38,104 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.2% win rate (645 games)
  • Bullet: 50.1% win rate (98,350 games)
  • Blitz: 49.3% win rate (61,872 games)
  • Rapid: 47.3% win rate (7,743 games)
  • Classical: 44.0% win rate (377 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (42 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (154 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (173 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 62.7% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (320 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (449 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (858 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,251 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (326 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (106 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,876 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (3,028 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (691 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (143 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (5,455 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (8,199 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (1,545 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (123 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.2% expected score (252 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (14,803 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (19,122 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (2,324 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (135 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (82 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (41,410 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (25,158 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (2,510 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (61 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (33,441 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (4,450 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (187 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation
51.0%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense
49.3%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense
49.9%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation
49.4%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation
50.1%
Analyze Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 169K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation perform best?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.8% win rate for white (38K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.1%) outperforms Classical (44.0%) by 6.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 91.5 (decisive), meaning 91.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 377 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 46.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 881 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 69K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 10.8% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 43.0%-49.4%) win rate for white (645 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.4%) win rate for white (98K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.7%) win rate for white (62K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.9%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.3%) win rate for white (7.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.1%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 39.8%-48.2%) win rate for white (377 Lichess games). Draw rate is 19.4%.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.