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Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation

169K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.1%

40%55%
Floor45.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.3%.

Measured over 169K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 8.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 169K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
169K
Best context
52.5% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Worst context
42.3% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
41 moves
Games that end decisively
91.5%
Draws
8.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.3% at 0-999, 47.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (33 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (42 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (154 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (173 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 37.4% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (320 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (449 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (858 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,251 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (326 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (106 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,876 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (3,028 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (691 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (143 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (5,455 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (8,199 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (1,545 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (123 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.9% expected score (252 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (14,803 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (19,122 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (2,324 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (135 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (41,410 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (25,158 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (2,510 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (33,441 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (4,450 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (187 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense
49.9%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3
50.8%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense
49.3%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation
51.0%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation
50.1%
Analyze Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation scores 46.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.9% and 46.3% — from 169K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
169K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate?

Playing the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation, Black wins 41.8%, draws 8.5% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 169K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation perform best?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 49.4% (5.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 45.8% in Blitz (62K games) against 47.2% in Rapid (7.7K games).

How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 91.5 (decisive), meaning 91.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 377 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 881 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.3%, draws 6.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.0%, draws 6.3% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.8%, draws 7.5% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.3%, draws 8.7% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 69K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.4%, draws 10.8% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 645 Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 42.5%, draws 7.4% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 98K Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 40.8%, draws 9.9% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 62K Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.6%, draws 11.1% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 36.6%, draws 19.4% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 377 Lichess games.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.8% of its games and loses 49.7%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.