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Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation

63K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.6%

45%60%
Floor53.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.9%.

Measured over 63K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 6.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 63K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
63K
Best context
58.1% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Worst context
51.6% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
93.1%
Draws
6.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 57.9%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (64 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (108 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 71.3% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (161 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (284 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (84 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (416 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (638 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (206 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (873 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (1,614 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (403 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (2,084 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (4,640 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (837 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (81 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (5,038 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (10,202 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (1,324 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.0% expected score (62 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (10,626 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (12,157 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (1,158 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (6,924 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (2,343 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.0% expected score (85 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense
49.9%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation
49.7%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3
50.8%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense
49.3%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation
51.0%
Analyze Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation scores 53.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.3% and 53.9% — from 63K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
63K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation win rate?

Playing the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation, White wins 50.1%, draws 6.9% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 63K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation perform best?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.0% (9.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.5% in Blitz (32K games) against 54.1% in Rapid (4.1K games).

How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 55.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 203 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 532 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 55.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.1%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.1%, draws 5.6% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.5%, draws 7.7% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.6%, draws 8.8% and loses 39.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.6%, draws 7.8% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 32K Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.7%, draws 8.7% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.9%, draws 10.6% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 229 Lichess games.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.1% of its games and loses 43.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.