Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3
132K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.0%.
Measured over 132K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 132K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 132K
- Best context
- 51.2% at 0-999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 36.7% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.5% at 0-999, 31.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (383 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (615 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (170 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (1,046 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (1,717 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (560 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (2,366 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (3,465 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (1,170 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (40 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (73 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (4,474 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (7,108 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (2,199 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (132 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (100 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (7,479 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (12,039 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (3,333 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (198 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (119 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (10,295 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (16,002 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (3,815 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (209 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (99 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (11,206 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (13,345 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (2,884 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.0% expected score (79 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (28 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (12,638 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (7,207 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.5% expected score (944 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (3,829 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (518 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 27.5% expected score (34 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 scores 46.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.6% and 47.0% — from 132K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 132K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate?
Playing the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3, Black wins 44.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 132K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 perform best?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.4% (1.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.4% in Blitz (62K games) against 46.5% in Rapid (15K games).
How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 50.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.5%, draws 5.8% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.3%, draws 7.9% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 448 Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 54K Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.8%, draws 5.2% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 62K Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.5%, draws 6.0% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 41.6%, draws 6.2% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 672 Lichess games.
Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 a good opening?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3 is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.4% of its games and loses 50.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.