Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation
103K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.3%.
Measured over 103K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 103K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 103K
- Best context
- 57.6% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Worst context
- 52.5% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.1%
- Draws
- 5.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 55.0% at 0-999, 63.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (82 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (126 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (52 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (370 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (367 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (132 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (863 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (865 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (270 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (54 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (1,680 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (2,006 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (495 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (27 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (129 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (3,218 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (4,124 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (904 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (40 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (165 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (6,143 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (8,280 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (1,466 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (85 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (121 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (12,770 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (11,916 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (1,537 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (74 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (56 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (23,724 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (7,720 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (911 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 72.6% expected score (14 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (11,239 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (550 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (25 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation scores 54.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.7% and 54.3% — from 103K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 103K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate?
Playing the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, White wins 51.0%, draws 5.9% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 103K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation perform best?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.6% (12K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 54.3% in Blitz (36K games) against 55.3% in Rapid (5.8K games).
How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 49.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 262 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 872 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 53.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.7% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.7%, draws 6.7% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.6%, draws 7.9% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 540 Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 60K Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.9%, draws 6.6% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.4%, draws 7.8% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 52.1%, draws 10.4% and loses 37.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 253 Lichess games.
Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation a good opening?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.0% of its games and loses 43.1%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.