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Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation

103K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.0%Range (90% confident): 53.7% – 54.3%Based on 103K games
0%54.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.7% – 54.3%
Outcome Distribution
51.0%5.9%43.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.c4
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation
Analyzen=103K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 54.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.7% and 54.3%), based on 103K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 50% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.5% win rate (262 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.2% win rate (872 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.4% win rate (2,019 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.0% win rate (4,262 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.3% win rate (8,415 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.5% win rate (16,139 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.9% win rate (26,418 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.7% win rate (32,425 games)
  • 2500+: 51.6% win rate (11,816 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.8% win rate (540 games)
  • Bullet: 51.0% win rate (60,089 games)
  • Blitz: 50.9% win rate (35,954 games)
  • Rapid: 51.4% win rate (5,792 games)
  • Classical: 52.1% win rate (253 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (82 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (126 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (52 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (370 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (367 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (132 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (863 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (865 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (270 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (54 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (1,680 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (2,006 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (495 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (129 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (3,218 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (4,124 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (904 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (165 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (6,143 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (8,280 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (1,466 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (85 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (121 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (12,770 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (11,916 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (1,537 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (74 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (56 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (23,724 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (7,720 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (911 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 72.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (11,239 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (550 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (25 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense
49.3%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense
49.9%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation
49.4%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation
50.1%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
50.0%
Continuations (3)
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense
49.3%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense
49.9%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation
49.4%
Analyze Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 103K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation perform best?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.0% win rate for white (4.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.8%) by 1.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 44.5%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 262 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.4%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 872 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 50.6%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 46.2%-53.3%) win rate for white (540 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.3%) win rate for white (60K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.4%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.5%) win rate for white (5.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.8%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-57.2%) win rate for white (253 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation a good opening?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.