Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation
26K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.1%.
Measured over 26K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 26K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 26K
- Best context
- 51.3% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 43.7% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.0%
- Draws
- 6.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.2% at 0-999, 52.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (59 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (113 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (40 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (181 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (301 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (116 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (345 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (461 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (219 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (457 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (798 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (386 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (711 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,163 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (437 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (31 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (1,180 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (1,801 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (494 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (47 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (2,353 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (2,629 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (377 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (4,051 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (3,154 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (198 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (3,556 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (525 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation scores 47.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.1% and 48.1% — from 26K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 26K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate?
Playing the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation, Black wins 44.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 26K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation perform best?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation performs best for Black at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 49.2% (4.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.7% in Blitz (11K games) against 46.4% in Rapid (2.3K games).
How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation has a sharpness score of 94.0 (decisive), meaning 94.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 47.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 212 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 40.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 601 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.4%, draws 5.3% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.8%, draws 7.2% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 45.2%, draws 8.0% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.2%, draws 5.5% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.4%, draws 6.4% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.4%, draws 5.9% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.
What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 37.3%, draws 10.7% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 134 Lichess games.
Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation a good opening?
The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.6% of its games and loses 49.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.