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Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense

114K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.3%Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 52.5%Based on 114K games
0%52.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 52.5%
Outcome Distribution
49.3%5.9%44.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...dxc4
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense
Analyzen=114K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 52.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.1% and 52.5%), based on 114K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~51%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.5% win rate (358 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.9% win rate (1,075 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.5% win rate (2,248 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.9% win rate (4,618 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.9% win rate (8,650 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (15,850 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.1% win rate (26,433 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.7% win rate (37,284 games)
  • 2500+: 49.1% win rate (17,336 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.5% win rate (313 games)
  • Bullet: 50.1% win rate (54,288 games)
  • Blitz: 48.7% win rate (50,940 games)
  • Rapid: 47.9% win rate (7,918 games)
  • Classical: 48.5% win rate (393 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (93 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (192 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (356 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (488 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (227 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (849 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (969 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (403 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 35.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (1,483 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (2,315 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (749 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (76 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (2,699 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (4,573 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (1,229 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (73 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (95 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (4,791 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (8,904 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,929 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (131 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (78 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (9,565 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (14,747 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (1,942 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (101 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 68.6% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (19,628 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (16,306 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (1,301 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 76.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (14,824 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (2,446 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.1% expected score (65 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation
51.0%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense
49.9%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Polgar Variation
49.4%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Delayed Exchange Variation
50.1%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
50.0%
Analyze Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 114K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense perform best?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (4.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.5%) by 1.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 46.2%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 358 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.7%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 8.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 43.9%-53.1%) win rate for white (313 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.4%) win rate for white (54K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.1%) win rate for white (51K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.8%) win rate for white (7.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 44.4%-52.7%) win rate for white (393 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.5%.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense a good opening?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense is statistically favors white with a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.