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Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation

23K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.7%Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 50.3%Based on 23K games
0%49.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 50.3%
Outcome Distribution
47.0%5.4%47.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bd2
Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation
Analyzen=23K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 49.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 50.3%), based on 23K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~48%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.3% win rate (132 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.4% win rate (569 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.3% win rate (1,456 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.1% win rate (2,744 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.4% win rate (4,464 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.6% win rate (5,812 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.5% win rate (4,178 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.3% win rate (2,767 games)
  • 2500+: 47.1% win rate (416 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in UltraBullet (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 37.9% win rate (71 games)
  • Bullet: 47.7% win rate (7,475 games)
  • Blitz: 47.1% win rate (12,432 games)
  • Rapid: 45.2% win rate (2,460 games)
  • Classical: 38.9% win rate (100 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (63 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (58 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (291 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (234 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (653 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (684 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (108 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,089 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (1,345 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (293 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,311 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (2,583 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (510 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,488 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (3,532 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (736 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,164 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (2,411 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (581 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (1,175 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (1,414 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (175 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (241 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (171 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 23K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 50.4% win rate for white (569 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (37.9%) by 9.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 41.2%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 132 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 47.0%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 569 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.2%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.2%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 43.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 416 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.6%) win rate for white (7.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.8%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.5%-46.8%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation has a 38.9% (90% CI: 31.1%-47.0%) win rate for white (100 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Opocensky Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.