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Analyzer

Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation

2.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation leaves Black at 47.9% — pick a better weapon.

The minimum advantage of -7.4% means this line underperforms at the selected level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score47.9%Based on 2.8K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
40%47.9%55%
Range (90% confident): 46.3% – 49.4%
Min adv-7.4%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=2.8K
Outcome Distribution
9.Qb3
Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation
Analyzen=2.8K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.3%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 47.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.3% and 49.4%), based on 2.8K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 37%

0
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1200-1399: 26.3% win rate (8 games)
  • 1400-1599: 57.3% win rate (36 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.7% win rate (137 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.5% win rate (505 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.0% win rate (1,011 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.8% win rate (970 games)
  • 2500+: 36.6% win rate (150 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (37%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 44.8% win rate (544 games)
  • Blitz: 44.8% win rate (1,962 games)
  • Rapid: 44.0% win rate (288 games)
  • Classical: 37.3% win rate (24 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399———
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (90 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (76 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (364 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (59 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (174 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (719 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (111 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (169 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (697 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (98 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (76 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 27.8% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.8% win rate for white (150 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.2%) outperforms Rapid (46.5%) by 4.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 42.5%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 137 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 45.4%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 505 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 44.6%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 970 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 57.8% (90% CI: 51.1%-64.3%) win rate for white, based on 150 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 47.7%-54.8%) win rate for white (544 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 46.9%-50.6%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 41.7%-51.3%) win rate for white (288 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.5%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Smyslov Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.