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Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation

12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.5%

45%60%
Floor50.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.3%.

Measured over 12K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 12K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
12K
Best context
54.2% at 1600-1799 Blitz
Worst context
48.3% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
94.2%
Draws
5.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.9% at 0-999, 53.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (77 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 71.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (96 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (201 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.9% expected score (57 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (341 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (544 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (425 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (1,833 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.5% expected score (50 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (785 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (2,678 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (467 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (743 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (2,041 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (204 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (284 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (145 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Petrosian System
49.2%
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation
48.4%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation scores 51.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.8% and 52.3% — from 12K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
12K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation win rate?

Playing the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation, White wins 48.6%, draws 5.8% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 12K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 52.6% (2.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (7.5K games) against 49.5% in Rapid (1.2K games).

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.0%, draws 2.0% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 123 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 356 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 47.6%, draws 6.2% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.4%, draws 7.0% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 47.5%, draws 9.6% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 440 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 47.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.8%, draws 6.0% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 45.5%, draws 7.9% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Russian Variation, Accelerated Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.6% of its games and loses 45.6%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.