King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line
37K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.8%.
Measured over 37K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 37K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 37K
- Best context
- 53.5% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 40.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.4%
- Draws
- 5.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 41.4%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (56 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (77 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (161 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (268 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (69 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (391 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (639 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (201 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (791 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,473 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (442 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (19 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,349 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (2,841 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (708 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (44 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (1,874 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (5,081 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (1,226 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (70 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (2,804 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (5,774 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (1,199 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.0% expected score (59 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (3,069 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (3,946 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (676 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (1,029 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (615 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (33 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line scores 49.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.0% and 49.8% — from 37K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 37K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line, Black wins 46.6%, draws 5.6% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 37K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.3% (8.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.8% in Blitz (21K games) against 49.3% in Rapid (4.6K games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line?
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 43.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 148 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 498 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.9%, draws 7.1% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.8%, draws 8.1% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.7%, draws 6.1% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.1%, draws 6.5% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 38.7%, draws 7.7% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 214 Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Rare Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.6% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.