271 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 55.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.2% and 60.1%), based on 271 Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~54%)
Best in Rapid (56%), worst in Bullet (45%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 40.6% (90% CI: 35.7%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 271 rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Pterodactyl Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.2% win rate for white (99 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (48.5%) outperforms Blitz (37.8%) by 10.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a sharpness score of 91.4 (decisive), meaning 91.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 37.8% (90% CI: 31.8%-44.0%) win rate for white (169 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Pterodactyl Variation is slightly favors black with a 40.6% (90% CI: 35.7%-45.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.