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King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation

75K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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7.dxe5
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.5%

45%60%
Floor54.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.8%.

Measured over 75K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 9.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 75K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
75K
Best context
62.9% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
46.8% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Average game length
40 moves
Games that end decisively
90.7%
Draws
9.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.3% at 0-999, 63.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (84 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (44 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (169 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (214 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (363 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (532 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (172 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (698 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (1,554 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (547 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,051 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (3,718 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (1,303 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (105 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (2,074 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (9,302 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (2,760 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (307 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (3,438 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (14,187 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (3,613 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (188 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (6,042 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (14,751 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (2,094 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (54 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (3,025 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.9% expected score (1,895 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (298 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 71.8% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation scores 54.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.2% and 54.8% — from 75K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
75K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?

Playing the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation, White wins 49.8%, draws 9.3% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 75K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 60.2% (5.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 54.7% in Blitz (46K games) against 51.8% in Rapid (11K games).

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 90.7 (decisive), meaning 90.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 45.0%, draws 1.7% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 144 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 46.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 440 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 46.9%, draws 6.4% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.2%, draws 7.6% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.1%, draws 9.3% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.8%, draws 11.3% and loses 37.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 53.6%, draws 13.1% and loses 33.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.2%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 47 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.3%, draws 7.0% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.8%, draws 9.7% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 46K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 46.4%, draws 10.8% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 45.5%, draws 15.7% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 708 Lichess games.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 49.8% of its games and loses 40.9%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.