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King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense

7.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.4%Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 49.4%Based on 7.0K games
0%48.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 49.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.1%8.6%47.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...c6
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense
Analyzen=7.0K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness91%
Draw Rate8.6%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 48.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.4% and 49.4%), based on 7.0K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 38% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 37.9% win rate (13 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.7% win rate (82 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.5% win rate (160 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.9% win rate (327 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.5% win rate (599 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.0% win rate (1,076 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.3% win rate (1,625 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.6% win rate (2,245 games)
  • 2500+: 35.8% win rate (903 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (59%), worst in Rapid (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 58.6% win rate (13 games)
  • Bullet: 46.3% win rate (2,217 games)
  • Blitz: 43.6% win rate (4,127 games)
  • Rapid: 38.8% win rate (632 games)
  • Classical: 50.6% win rate (41 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (46 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (55 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (86 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (70 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (191 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (60 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (140 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (355 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (94 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (229 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (672 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (157 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 71.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (1,072 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (168 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (777 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (1,344 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.0% expected score (120 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (540 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (357 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 49.9% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (53.1%) outperforms Blitz (45.7%) by 7.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a sharpness score of 91.4 (decisive), meaning 91.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 44.0%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 160 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 46.4% (90% CI: 41.9%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 327 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 47.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 599 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 47.4%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 46.9%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 39.1% (90% CI: 36.4%-41.8%) win rate for white, based on 903 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 25.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.0%-50.4%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.5%-47.0%) win rate for white (4.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.6%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense has a 53.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-56.4%) win rate for white (632 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense is statistically balanced with a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.