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King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense

3.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.0%Range (90% confident): 46.6% – 49.4%Based on 3.5K games
0%48.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.6% – 49.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.8%6.3%48.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...a5
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense
Analyzen=3.5K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.3%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense has a 48.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.6% and 49.4%), based on 3.5K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.4% win rate (8 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.9% win rate (23 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.6% win rate (85 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.9% win rate (237 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.7% win rate (676 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.9% win rate (1,054 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.8% win rate (1,133 games)
  • 2500+: 40.9% win rate (237 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (49%), worst in Rapid (40%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 48.9% win rate (854 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (2,169 games)
  • Rapid: 40.0% win rate (405 games)
  • Classical: 49.1% win rate (26 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 10.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 69.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (51 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (68 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (136 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (137 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (422 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (109 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (252 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (647 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (145 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (272 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (762 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (93 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (139 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.5% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (49.1%) outperforms Bullet (47.2%) by 1.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense has a 47.6% (90% CI: 42.3%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 237 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense has a 46.9% (90% CI: 43.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 676 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.0%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 46.0%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 237 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense has a 47.2% (90% CI: 44.4%-50.0%) win rate for white (854 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.9%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 47.0%-55.1%) win rate for white (405 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.0%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Ukrainian Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.