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King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense

31K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.5%Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 47.0%Based on 31K games
0%46.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 47.0%
Outcome Distribution
44.4%4.2%51.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Nbd7
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense
Analyzen=31K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 46.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.0% and 47.0%), based on 31K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 55% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 54.7% win rate (25 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.3% win rate (178 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.4% win rate (1,010 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.2% win rate (2,290 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.7% win rate (4,398 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.7% win rate (7,709 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.0% win rate (8,956 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.0% win rate (5,659 games)
  • 2500+: 39.9% win rate (1,071 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (45%), worst in UltraBullet (14%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 44.8% win rate (10,166 games)
  • Blitz: 44.1% win rate (17,631 games)
  • Rapid: 45.0% win rate (3,302 games)
  • Classical: 40.5% win rate (195 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (100 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (71 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (477 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (469 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (64 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,003 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (1,084 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (197 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,329 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (2,416 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (618 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (2,135 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (4,573 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (903 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (97 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (2,423 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (5,375 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (1,113 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (1,891 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (3,369 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (386 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 29.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (792 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (267 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 20.4% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 31K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (9.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.3%) outperforms Classical (52.7%) by -0.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 46.5% (90% CI: 40.4%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 178 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.6%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 53.4% (90% CI: 50.9%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.2%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.9%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.6%-50.5%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 46.8%-58.5%) win rate for white (195 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.