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King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense

31K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.5%

40%55%
Floor46.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.0%.

Measured over 31K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 31K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
31K
Best context
51.7% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Worst context
42.5% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.8%
Draws
4.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.8% at 0-999, 36.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (100 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (71 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (477 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (469 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (64 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,003 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (1,084 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (197 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,329 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (2,416 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (618 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (2,135 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (4,573 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (903 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (97 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (2,423 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (5,375 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (1,113 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (1,891 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (3,369 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (386 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 29.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (792 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (267 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 20.4% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense scores 46.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.0% and 47.0% — from 31K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
31K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate?

Playing the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense, Black wins 44.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 31K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 48.4% (4.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 46.4% in Blitz (18K games) against 48.0% in Rapid (3.3K games).

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 178 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.4%, draws 1.4% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.0%, draws 5.5% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.9%, draws 6.8% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.0%, draws 6.0% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.5%, draws 6.9% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 195 Lichess games.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.4% of its games and loses 51.4%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.