TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation

67K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.5%Range (90% confident): 45.2% – 45.8%Based on 67K games
0%45.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.2% – 45.8%
Outcome Distribution
42.9%5.2%51.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...e5
King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation
Analyzen=67K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 45.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.2% and 45.8%), based on 67K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.7% win rate (42 games)
  • 1000-1199: 40.8% win rate (208 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.0% win rate (486 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.2% win rate (1,494 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.9% win rate (4,572 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.3% win rate (14,163 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.2% win rate (24,815 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.7% win rate (18,931 games)
  • 2500+: 40.5% win rate (2,446 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (59%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 59.3% win rate (28 games)
  • Bullet: 43.9% win rate (26,991 games)
  • Blitz: 42.3% win rate (35,708 games)
  • Rapid: 41.9% win rate (4,202 games)
  • Classical: 40.7% win rate (228 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 64.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (136 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (60 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (220 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (227 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (711 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (661 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (100 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (2,015 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (2,212 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (307 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (4,653 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (8,400 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (1,024 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (83 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (7,626 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (15,284 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (1,808 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (94 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (9,588 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (8,444 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (889 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (2,013 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (411 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 28.7% expected score (22 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 67K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (19K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.1%) outperforms Classical (49.9%) by 2.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 49.9%-61.2%) win rate for white, based on 208 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 50.1%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 486 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.1%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.6%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.3%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.0%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 44.5%-55.3%) win rate for white (228 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.4%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Orthodox Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.