17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense has a 46.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.0% and 47.3%), based on 17K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 64% → 43%
Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (31%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 17K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (5.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (51.7%) outperforms Rapid (50.9%) by 0.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 46.8%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 435 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 0.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.6%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.2%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 715 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.7%) win rate for white (6.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.0%) win rate for white (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-53.1%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Nc6 Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.