42K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line has a 46.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.4% and 47.2%), based on 42K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 53% → 40%
Best in Bullet (44%), worst in Classical (36%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 42K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (7.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (50.2%) outperforms Classical (51.3%) by -1.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line has a sharpness score of 92.7 (decisive), meaning 92.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line has a 44.7% (90% CI: 39.8%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 277 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line has a 49.1% (90% CI: 46.1%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 780 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.3%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.5%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.8%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.8%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.3%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.6%-48.4%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.8%.
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Yugoslav Variation, Exchange Line is statistically favors white with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.