50K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line has a 55.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.3% and 56.0%), based on 50K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 53%
Best in UltraBullet (77%), worst in Blitz (52%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 50K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (17K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (54.6%) outperforms Classical (52.9%) by 1.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line has a 55.3% (90% CI: 49.6%-61.1%) win rate for white, based on 200 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line has a 52.2% (90% CI: 49.4%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 855 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.9%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.8%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.9%) win rate for white (33K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line has a 54.6% (90% CI: 53.1%-56.1%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.
In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line has a 52.9% (90% CI: 46.1%-59.6%) win rate for white (147 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.1%.
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Classical Main Line is statistically favors white with a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.