3.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line has a 44.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.3% and 46.1%), based on 3.5K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 33% → 41%
Best in Bullet (44%), worst in Rapid (32%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.6%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 57.4% win rate for white (151 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (60.7%) outperforms Blitz (51.4%) by 9.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line has a 57.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-63.9%) win rate for white, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line has a 54.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-58.8%) win rate for white, based on 394 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line has a 53.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 581 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line has a 52.1% (90% CI: 49.6%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line has a 51.3% (90% CI: 48.7%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 946 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line has a 53.8% (90% CI: 48.9%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 282 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line has a 53.5% (90% CI: 51.1%-55.9%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.6%-53.3%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line has a 60.7% (90% CI: 56.2%-65.2%) win rate for white (322 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Closed Variation, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.6%-54.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.