King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation
5.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.9%.
Measured over 5.9K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.9K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 5.9K
- Best context
- 60.2% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 50.3% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.5%
- Draws
- 5.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.0% at 0-999, 66.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (81 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (71 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (17 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (215 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (329 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (47 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (399 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (821 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (113 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 76.3% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (513 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (1,066 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (190 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (739 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (945 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (82 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.5% expected score (162 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 73.3% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation scores 53.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.8% and 54.9% — from 5.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 5.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation, White wins 51.0%, draws 5.5% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 5.9K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 64.0% (184 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 54.1% in Blitz (3.3K games) against 52.8% in Rapid (453 games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation?
The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 171 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 46.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 595 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.9%, draws 7.6% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 60.6%, draws 6.7% and loses 32.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.0%. It rests on 184 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.0%, draws 6.2% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.6%, draws 6.3% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 453 Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.0% of its games and loses 43.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.