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King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation

84K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.9%

45%55%
Floor48.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.2%.

Measured over 84K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 84K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
84K
Best context
50.8% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Worst context
42.2% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
94.9%
Draws
5.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.4% at 0-999, 40.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (103 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (86 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (401 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (332 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (80 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,025 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (166 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (2,041 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (2,287 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (420 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (3,880 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4,578 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (790 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (41 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (6,733 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (9,978 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,235 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (9,246 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (11,866 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,244 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (11,828 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (7,166 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (661 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (5,408 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (793 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.6% expected score (18 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation scores 48.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.6% and 49.2% — from 84K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
84K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate?

Playing the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation, Black wins 46.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 84K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 50.1% (18K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.0% in Blitz (38K games) against 48.9% in Rapid (4.6K games).

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 210 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 818 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.8%, draws 6.9% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 41K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.8% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 39.5%, draws 9.6% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 149 Lichess games.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Simagin Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.3% of its games and loses 48.6%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.