TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense

5.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.5%Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 50.6%Based on 5.8K games
0%49.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 50.6%
Outcome Distribution
46.3%6.3%47.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Na6
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense
Analyzen=5.8K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.3%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 49.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.4% and 50.6%), based on 5.8K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 38%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.5% win rate (15 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.3% win rate (54 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.8% win rate (158 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.5% win rate (490 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.5% win rate (1,425 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.2% win rate (2,903 games)
  • 2500+: 38.3% win rate (717 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (47%), worst in Classical (38%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.5% win rate (1,210 games)
  • Blitz: 46.7% win rate (4,137 games)
  • Rapid: 45.4% win rate (372 games)
  • Classical: 37.6% win rate (45 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399———
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (86 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (116 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (315 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (45 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (204 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,033 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (170 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (457 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (2,317 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (121 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (363 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (347 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 8.9% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Continuations (1)
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line
51.3%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.2% win rate for white (717 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.6%) outperforms Blitz (46.7%) by 2.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 42.3% (90% CI: 36.0%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 158 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 46.7% (90% CI: 43.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 490 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 47.5% (90% CI: 45.3%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.7%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 717 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.3%-52.0%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.4%-48.0%) win rate for white (4.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-54.2%) win rate for white (372 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense is statistically balanced with a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.