King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense
42K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.8%.
Measured over 42K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 42K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 42K
- Best context
- 54.6% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.9% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.1%
- Draws
- 5.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 21.5% at 0-999, 48.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 10.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 63.7% expected score (46 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (81 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (130 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (34 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (194 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (429 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (77 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (632 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (1,783 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (186 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (24 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (3,210 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (5,660 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (397 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.5% expected score (26 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (9,771 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (9,918 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (407 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (7,904 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (1,399 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.8% expected score (40 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense scores 51.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.0% and 51.8% — from 42K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 42K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense, Black wins 48.5%, draws 5.9% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 42K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 53.9% (9.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.6% in Blitz (19K games) against 49.7% in Rapid (1.1K games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense?
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 248 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 713 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.0%, draws 5.5% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 51.4%, draws 5.0% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.5%, draws 6.0% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 44.8%, draws 6.8% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.1%, draws 6.9% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.6%, draws 8.2% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.5% of its games and loses 45.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.