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King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense

42K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.4%Range (90% confident): 51.0% – 51.8%Based on 42K games
0%51.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.0% – 51.8%
Outcome Distribution
48.5%5.9%45.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Qa5
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense
Analyzen=42K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense has a 51.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.0% and 51.8%), based on 42K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 9% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 9.1% win rate (4 games)
  • 1000-1199: 33.3% win rate (18 games)
  • 1200-1399: 58.5% win rate (78 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.5% win rate (248 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.6% win rate (713 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.0% win rate (2,626 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.4% win rate (9,294 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.5% win rate (20,102 games)
  • 2500+: 44.8% win rate (9,344 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (54%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • Bullet: 48.9% win rate (21,824 games)
  • Blitz: 48.1% win rate (19,378 games)
  • Rapid: 45.6% win rate (1,150 games)
  • Classical: 53.7% win rate (72 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 10.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 63.7% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (81 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (130 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (194 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (429 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (77 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (632 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (1,783 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (186 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (3,210 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (5,660 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (397 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.5% expected score (26 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (9,771 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (9,918 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (407 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (7,904 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (1,399 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.3%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 42K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.5% win rate for white (248 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.3%) outperforms Classical (38.8%) by 7.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense has a 53.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-58.7%) win rate for white, based on 248 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense has a 44.6% (90% CI: 41.5%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 713 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense has a 44.5% (90% CI: 42.9%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense has a 43.6% (90% CI: 42.8%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 9.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.8%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.6%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense has a 46.2% (90% CI: 43.7%-48.6%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Kavalek Defense is statistically balanced with a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.3%-46.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.