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King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation

43K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.0%Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 49.4%Based on 43K games
0%49.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 49.4%
Outcome Distribution
46.4%5.1%48.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Nc6
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation
Analyzen=43K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.1%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 49.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.6% and 49.4%), based on 43K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.0% win rate (125 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.1% win rate (461 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.2% win rate (1,202 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.8% win rate (2,573 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.9% win rate (5,233 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (9,516 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.4% win rate (11,831 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.4% win rate (10,047 games)
  • 2500+: 38.6% win rate (2,320 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
  • Bullet: 47.4% win rate (15,346 games)
  • Blitz: 46.1% win rate (23,975 games)
  • Rapid: 45.0% win rate (3,838 games)
  • Classical: 36.9% win rate (146 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.7% expected score (47 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (53 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (171 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (223 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (66 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (467 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (562 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (170 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (894 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (1,347 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (319 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 26.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,613 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (2,981 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (603 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (2,768 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (5,579 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,131 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.9% expected score (38 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (3,925 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (6,935 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (931 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (4,077 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (5,406 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (548 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (1,384 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (889 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.0% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 43K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (2.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.8%) outperforms Classical (53.2%) by -4.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 42.9%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 125 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 44.9%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 461 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 48.9%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 9.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.1%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.5%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.9%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.2%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-59.9%) win rate for white (146 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.8%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Carlsbad Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.