479 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Panno Variation, Donner Line has a 47.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.6% and 51.1%), based on 479 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 43% → 31%
Best in Classical (60%), worst in Blitz (42%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Panno Variation, Donner Line has a 47.8% (90% CI: 44.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 479 rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Panno Variation, Donner Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 56.7% win rate for white (114 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (48.9%) outperforms Bullet (49.8%) by -0.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Panno Variation, Donner Line has a sharpness score of 90.1 (decisive), meaning 90.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 44 moves.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Panno Variation, Donner Line has a 45.7% (90% CI: 40.8%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 273 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Panno Variation, Donner Line has a 56.7% (90% CI: 49.1%-64.2%) win rate for white, based on 114 Lichess games. Average game length is 51 moves with a 12.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Panno Variation, Donner Line has a 49.8% (90% CI: 42.2%-57.4%) win rate for white (114 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Panno Variation, Donner Line has a 48.9% (90% CI: 44.4%-53.4%) win rate for white (335 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.4%.
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Panno Variation, Donner Line is statistically balanced with a 47.8% (90% CI: 44.0%-51.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.