838 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line has a 46.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.4% and 49.1%), based on 838 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 78% → 36%
Best in Blitz (45%), worst in Rapid (37%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line has a 51.5% (90% CI: 48.7%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 838 rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.3% win rate for white (132 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (53.7%) outperforms Blitz (50.1%) by 3.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 41.9%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 183 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line has a 51.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 499 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line has a 57.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-64.3%) win rate for white, based on 132 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line has a 53.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-59.1%) win rate for white (232 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line has a 50.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-53.5%) win rate for white (582 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line is statistically balanced with a 51.5% (90% CI: 48.7%-54.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.