King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line
838 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.
Measured over 838 games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 838 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 838
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.5%
- Draws
- 4.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 74.3% at 1600-1799, 40.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (37 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (140 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (140 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (348 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (51 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (76 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line scores 46.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.4% and 49.1% — from 838 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 838+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 838 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 48.9% (183 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line?
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.8%, draws 6.2% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 183 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 499 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 35.6%, draws 7.1% and loses 57.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.2%. It rests on 132 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 232 Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.6%, draws 5.2% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 582 Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.0% of its games and loses 51.5%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.