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King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense

104K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.4%

40%55%
Floor47.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.7%.

Measured over 104K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 104K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
104K
Best context
50.5% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Worst context
41.5% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
94.1%
Draws
5.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.3% at 0-999, 44.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.1% expected score (63 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (50 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (222 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (193 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (554 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (746 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (186 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,149 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (2,044 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (546 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (2,386 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (5,214 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (1,356 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (97 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (4,566 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (12,663 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (2,793 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (197 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (6,349 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (18,886 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (3,103 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (139 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (11,700 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (18,128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (2,005 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.7% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (5,605 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (2,787 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (131 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Continuations (2)
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line
45.6%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line
51.5%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense scores 47.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.2% and 47.7% — from 104K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
104K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate?

Playing the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Black wins 44.4%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 104K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 56.7% (127 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.2% in Blitz (61K games) against 45.2% in Rapid (10K games).

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 54.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 127 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 458 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.4%, draws 7.0% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 33K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.0%, draws 6.4% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 61K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.4%, draws 7.6% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 35.9%, draws 8.9% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.4%. It rests on 512 Lichess games.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.4% of its games and loses 49.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.