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King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense

104K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.4%Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.7%Based on 104K games
0%47.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.7%
Outcome Distribution
44.4%5.9%49.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...O-O
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense
Analyzen=104K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 47.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.2% and 47.7%), based on 104K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 55% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 54.9% win rate (127 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.3% win rate (458 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.9% win rate (1,495 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.6% win rate (3,784 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.3% win rate (9,064 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.2% win rate (20,226 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.9% win rate (28,479 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.1% win rate (31,861 games)
  • 2500+: 39.4% win rate (8,528 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (36%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.5% win rate (29 games)
  • Bullet: 46.3% win rate (32,594 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (60,711 games)
  • Rapid: 41.4% win rate (10,176 games)
  • Classical: 35.9% win rate (512 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.1% expected score (63 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (50 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (222 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (193 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (554 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (746 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (186 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,149 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (2,044 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (546 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (2,386 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (5,214 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (1,356 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (97 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (4,566 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (12,663 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (2,793 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (197 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (6,349 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (18,886 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (3,103 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (139 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (11,700 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (18,128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (2,005 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.7% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (5,605 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (2,787 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (131 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Continuations (2)
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Closed Line
45.6%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense, Main Line
51.5%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 104K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (8.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (55.2%) outperforms Bullet (49.3%) by 5.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 41.6% (90% CI: 34.6%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 127 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 43.3%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 458 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 8.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.7%) win rate for white (33K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.9%) win rate for white (61K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.8%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense has a 55.2% (90% CI: 51.6%-58.8%) win rate for white (512 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.9%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Positional Defense is statistically favors white with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.