King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto
31K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.8%.
Measured over 31K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 31K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 31K
- Best context
- 49.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 41.9% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 44.7% at 0-999, 37.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 35.9% expected score (34 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.1% expected score (205 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (108 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (449 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (406 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (79 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (979 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (1,253 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (222 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 19.0% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (1,823 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (2,913 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (623 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (34 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (2,423 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (5,141 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (950 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (42 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (2,440 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (4,264 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (606 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (2,583 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (2,516 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (161 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (412 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (277 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 19.6% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto scores 45.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.8% and 45.8% — from 31K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 31K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto, Black wins 43.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 31K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 48.5% (5.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.8% in Blitz (17K games) against 42.9% in Rapid (2.7K games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto?
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 40.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 56.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 325 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.0%, draws 1.8% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 935 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.5%, draws 2.2% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.5%, draws 7.5% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 699 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 36.4%, draws 7.8% and loses 55.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.3%. It rests on 107 Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Double Fianchetto is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.2% of its games and loses 52.7%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.