King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense
43K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.3%.
Measured over 43K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 43K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 43K
- Best context
- 51.9% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 46.2% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Average game length
- 41 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.2%
- Draws
- 6.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.4% at 0-999, 44.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (51 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (44 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (126 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (219 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (45 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (263 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (569 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (151 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (550 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (1,416 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (365 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (29 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (922 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (2,993 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (676 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (58 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (2,140 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (5,965 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (851 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (63 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (6,064 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (9,684 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (699 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (7,030 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (2,062 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (63 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense scores 49.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.5% and 50.3% — from 43K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 43K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense, Black wins 46.5%, draws 6.8% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 43K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 50.9% (16K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.8% in Blitz (23K games) against 48.6% in Rapid (2.9K games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense?
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense has a sharpness score of 93.2 (decisive), meaning 93.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.0%, draws 0.4% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 117 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 392 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 993 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.2%, draws 6.2% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.2%, draws 7.4% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 44.6%, draws 7.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.1%, draws 7.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.4%, draws 8.3% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 37.8%, draws 16.0% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 177 Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Larsen Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.5% of its games and loses 46.7%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.