King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense
159K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.8%.
Measured over 159K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 159K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 159K
- Best context
- 49.2% at 1200-1399 Bullet
- Worst context
- 44.0% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.0% at 0-999, 41.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (66 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (44 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (364 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (145 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (34 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (946 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (633 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (115 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (2,490 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (2,662 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (369 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (6,479 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (8,642 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (1,134 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (58 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (13,738 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (25,687 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (2,953 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (137 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (18,830 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (33,677 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (3,451 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (93 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (16,914 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (14,409 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (1,277 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (3,265 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (591 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.0% expected score (29 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense scores 47.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.4% and 47.8% — from 159K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 159K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense, Black wins 45.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 159K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 48.5% (43K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.7% in Blitz (86K games) against 47.3% in Rapid (9.4K games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense?
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 39.9%, draws 2.1% and loses 58.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.0%. It rests on 120 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.9%, draws 1.7% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 547 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.9%, draws 2.2% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.8%, draws 2.1% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 56K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 63K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 86K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 43.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 321 Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Yates Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.5% of its games and loses 50.3%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.