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King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation

9.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.6%Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 48.4%Based on 9.9K games
0%47.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 48.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.4%6.3%49.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
11...a5
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation
Analyzen=9.9K
Avg Length40 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.3%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation has a 47.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.8% and 48.4%), based on 9.9K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 14% → 42%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.1% win rate (24 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.9% win rate (68 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.9% win rate (494 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.2% win rate (2,054 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.5% win rate (4,772 games)
  • 2500+: 42.2% win rate (2,503 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Blitz (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 44.8% win rate (3,670 games)
  • Blitz: 44.1% win rate (5,769 games)
  • Rapid: 45.4% win rate (464 games)
  • Classical: 48.6% win rate (16 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199———
1200-1399———
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (103 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (355 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (387 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (1,501 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (156 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,361 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (3,156 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (254 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,786 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (701 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 9.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (2.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.3%) outperforms Rapid (48.9%) by 1.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 44.6%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 494 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.6%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.7%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.8%) win rate for white (5.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 45.1%-52.7%) win rate for white (464 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Long Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.