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King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation

23K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score52.8%Range (90% confident): 52.3% – 53.3%Based on 23K games
0%52.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.3% – 53.3%
Outcome Distribution
50.3%5.0%44.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...dxe5
King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation
Analyzen=23K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.0%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 52.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.3% and 53.3%), based on 23K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.7% win rate (100 games)
  • 1000-1199: 57.3% win rate (408 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.6% win rate (1,184 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.0% win rate (2,432 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.1% win rate (3,992 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.0% win rate (4,726 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.2% win rate (3,914 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.0% win rate (4,166 games)
  • 2500+: 45.4% win rate (1,976 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in Classical (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.9% win rate (65 games)
  • Bullet: 51.5% win rate (11,657 games)
  • Blitz: 49.3% win rate (9,240 games)
  • Rapid: 47.6% win rate (1,850 games)
  • Classical: 47.4% win rate (86 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (60 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (191 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 62.7% expected score (192 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (543 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (523 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (115 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (995 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (1,137 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (288 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (1,466 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,042 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (445 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (1,709 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (2,391 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (565 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (40 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (1,731 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (1,848 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (311 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (3,091 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (985 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (81 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,871 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (89 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 23K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 46.9% win rate for white (2.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (45.0%) outperforms Classical (42.9%) by 2.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 34.9%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 100 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 39.4% (90% CI: 35.5%-43.4%) win rate for white, based on 408 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 42.5%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 44.7%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.5%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 43.6%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 42.6%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 42.8% (90% CI: 41.5%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.1%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.5%-45.0%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.8%) win rate for white (9.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.1%-47.9%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.