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King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation

23K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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8...dxe5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.8%

45%60%
Floor52.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.3%.

Measured over 23K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 23K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
23K
Best context
56.2% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Worst context
49.2% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
95.0%
Draws
5.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.0% at 0-999, 52.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (60 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (191 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 62.7% expected score (192 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (543 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (523 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (115 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (995 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (1,137 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (288 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (1,466 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,042 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (445 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (1,709 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (2,391 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (565 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (40 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (1,731 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (1,848 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (311 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (3,091 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (985 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (81 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,871 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (89 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation scores 52.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.3% and 53.3% — from 23K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
23K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate?

Playing the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation, Black wins 50.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 23K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 59.0% (408 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.2% in Blitz (9.2K games) against 50.8% in Rapid (1.9K games).

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 55.7%, draws 1.5% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 100 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 57.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.0%. It rests on 408 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 51.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 51.0%, draws 6.2% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.4%, draws 7.7% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 51.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.6%, draws 6.5% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Semi-Classical Variation, Exchange Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.3% of its games and loses 44.7%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.