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King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense

105K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.8%Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 49.1%Based on 105K games
0%48.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 49.1%
Outcome Distribution
45.9%5.7%48.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Nc6
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense
Analyzen=105K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.7%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 48.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.6% and 49.1%), based on 105K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.6% win rate (143 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.6% win rate (547 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.8% win rate (1,578 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.9% win rate (4,152 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.5% win rate (10,437 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.7% win rate (23,809 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.6% win rate (30,336 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.7% win rate (27,247 games)
  • 2500+: 36.9% win rate (6,509 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (76%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 75.8% win rate (15 games)
  • Bullet: 46.3% win rate (33,775 games)
  • Blitz: 45.6% win rate (60,689 games)
  • Rapid: 46.5% win rate (9,791 games)
  • Classical: 43.4% win rate (488 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (63 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (69 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (245 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (222 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (77 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (666 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (715 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (196 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (2,245 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (511 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (2,660 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (6,412 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (1,267 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (95 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (5,332 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (15,227 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (3,073 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (174 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (7,278 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (19,904 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (3,002 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (151 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (11,697 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (13,968 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (1,546 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (4,472 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.3% expected score (1,927 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.8% expected score (108 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 105K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 55.1% win rate for white (6.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.5%) outperforms Classical (45.5%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 53.6% (90% CI: 46.8%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 143 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 46.4%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 547 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.0%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.9%) win rate for white (34K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.5%) win rate for white (61K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.6%) win rate for white (9.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a 45.5% (90% CI: 41.8%-49.2%) win rate for white (488 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.1%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.