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King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense

105K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.8%

45%55%
Floor48.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.

Measured over 105K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 105K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
105K
Best context
53.4% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Worst context
37.3% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
94.3%
Draws
5.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.6% at 0-999, 47.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (63 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (69 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (245 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (222 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (77 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (666 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (715 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (196 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (2,245 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (511 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (2,660 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (6,412 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (1,267 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (95 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (5,332 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (15,227 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (3,073 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (174 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (7,278 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (19,904 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (3,002 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (151 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (11,697 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (13,968 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (1,546 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (4,472 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.3% expected score (1,927 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.8% expected score (108 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense scores 48.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.6% and 49.1% — from 105K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
105K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate?

Playing the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 105K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 51.6% (10K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.7% in Blitz (61K games) against 50.4% in Rapid (9.8K games).

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 44.6%, draws 1.7% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 143 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 547 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.6%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.7%, draws 6.7% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 36.9%, draws 8.0% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.9%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 34K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.6%, draws 6.2% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 61K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.5%, draws 7.7% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 43.4%, draws 11.1% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 488 Lichess games.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.9% of its games and loses 48.4%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.