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King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense

22K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.5%Range (90% confident): 49.0% – 50.1%Based on 22K games
0%49.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.0% – 50.1%
Outcome Distribution
47.1%4.8%48.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Nbd7
King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense
Analyzen=22K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 49.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.0% and 50.1%), based on 22K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.5% win rate (49 games)
  • 1000-1199: 59.8% win rate (185 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.4% win rate (437 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.0% win rate (1,232 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.0% win rate (2,538 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.4% win rate (4,392 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.3% win rate (5,799 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.8% win rate (5,511 games)
  • 2500+: 39.0% win rate (1,397 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.9% win rate (7 games)
  • Bullet: 47.1% win rate (5,323 games)
  • Blitz: 46.6% win rate (13,140 games)
  • Rapid: 49.9% win rate (2,856 games)
  • Classical: 45.7% win rate (214 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 66.1% expected score (70 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (136 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (215 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (84 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (327 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (726 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (422 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (1,609 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (460 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (666 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (2,733 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (899 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (94 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (985 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (3,999 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (762 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (52 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (1,872 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (3,201 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (427 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (822 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.3% expected score (546 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (29 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 22K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.1% win rate for white (5.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.1%) outperforms Classical (43.9%) by 5.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense?

The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 37.8% (90% CI: 32.1%-43.7%) win rate for white, based on 185 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 41.8%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 437 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 46.3% (90% CI: 43.9%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 44.2% (90% CI: 42.6%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 44.0% (90% CI: 42.8%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 54.0% (90% CI: 51.8%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.2%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.2%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.9%-45.9%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense has a 43.9% (90% CI: 38.3%-49.4%) win rate for white (214 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Petrosian Variation, Normal Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.