King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation
28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
57.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.8%.
Measured over 28K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 28K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 28K
- Best context
- 65.4% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 52.6% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 63.1% at 0-999, 69.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 40.8% expected score (31 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (120 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (123 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (17 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (483 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (493 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (71 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (846 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (1,052 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (317 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (1,043 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (1,941 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (577 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (31 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (1,724 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (3,531 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (730 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 66.3% expected score (69 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (2,113 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (4,577 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (858 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 60.2% expected score (2,072 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.0% expected score (3,302 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 66.1% expected score (401 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 65.4% expected score (1,038 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.7% expected score (237 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation scores 57.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.9% and 57.8% — from 28K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 28K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, White wins 55.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 28K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 65.4% (1.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 57.2% in Blitz (15K games) against 58.3% in Rapid (3.0K games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation?
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 53.3%, draws 2.1% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 260 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 53.7%, draws 2.2% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 53.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 52.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 54.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 55.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 7.6K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 57.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 36.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.6%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 62.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 31.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.4%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 55.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 54.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 55.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 39.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 57.7%, draws 7.8% and loses 34.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.6%. It rests on 145 Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 55.2% of its games and loses 40.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.