28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 49.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 50.1%), based on 28K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 64% → 42%
Best in Classical (55%), worst in Rapid (46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 28K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.9% win rate for white (2.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (47.7%) outperforms Classical (33.3%) by 14.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 47.0%-62.9%) win rate for white, based on 103 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 41.5%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 246 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 43.3%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 694 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.4%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.0%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 8.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.6%) win rate for white (7.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.3%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.4%-49.0%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.
In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a 33.3% (90% CI: 26.1%-40.9%) win rate for white (108 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.4%.
The King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.