King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation
28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.1%.
Measured over 28K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 28K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 28K
- Best context
- 52.2% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Worst context
- 45.0% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.3%
- Draws
- 5.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 65.4% at 0-999, 44.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 32.8% expected score (45 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (48 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (56 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (138 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (50 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (183 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (379 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (124 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 23.7% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (380 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,011 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (295 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (882 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (2,975 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (520 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 78.0% expected score (45 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (1,233 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (6,172 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (655 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (2,885 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (6,528 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (423 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (1,800 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (1,055 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (44 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation scores 49.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.1% and 50.1% — from 28K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 28K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation, Black wins 46.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 28K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.6% (4.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.4% in Blitz (18K games) against 49.2% in Rapid (2.1K games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation?
The King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 103 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 246 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 694 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.7%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 8.1K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.0%, draws 6.5% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.8%, draws 8.4% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.4%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.6%, draws 7.2% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 55.3%, draws 11.4% and loses 33.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.0%. It rests on 108 Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Kazakh Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.7% of its games and loses 47.6%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.