1.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit has a 60.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 58.4% and 62.5%), based on 1.5K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Stable across ratings (~60%)
Best in Bullet (60%), worst in Classical (39%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit has a 58.6% (90% CI: 56.5%-60.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 58.2% win rate for white (824 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (58.5%) outperforms Rapid (53.8%) by 4.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit has a 58.1% (90% CI: 53.3%-62.9%) win rate for white, based on 285 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit has a 58.2% (90% CI: 55.4%-61.0%) win rate for white, based on 824 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit has a 58.5% (90% CI: 53.8%-63.0%) win rate for white, based on 309 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit has a 60.1% (90% CI: 55.7%-64.3%) win rate for white (349 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit has a 58.5% (90% CI: 56.0%-60.9%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit is statistically favors white with a 58.6% (90% CI: 56.5%-60.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.