King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit
1.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
60.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 62.5%.
Measured over 1.5K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.5K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.5K
- Best context
- 60.0% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 1200-1399, 63.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 60.2% expected score (23 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 63.6% expected score (50 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (39 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.0% expected score (224 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (20 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (133 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.0% expected score (656 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (34 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (151 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.5% expected score (151 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit scores 60.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 58.4% and 62.5% — from 1.5K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.5K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit, White wins 58.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 37.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.5%. It rests on 1.5K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 60.3% (824 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 60.3% in Blitz (1.1K games) against 57.0% in Rapid (70 games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit?
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 58.1%, draws 1.2% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.7%. It rests on 285 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 58.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 37.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.3%. It rests on 824 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 58.5%, draws 5.6% and loses 35.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.3%. It rests on 309 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 60.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 36.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.9%. It rests on 349 Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 58.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.3%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 58.6% of its games and loses 37.7%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.