King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack
48K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.2%.
Measured over 48K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 6.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 48K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 48K
- Best context
- 54.2% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 46.0% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.8%
- Draws
- 6.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 40.0% at 0-999, 52.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (65 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (40 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (222 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (254 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (45 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (737 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (1,170 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (121 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (2,149 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (6,272 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (661 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (47 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (4,322 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (12,010 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (1,504 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (45 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (5,632 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (8,756 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (691 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (2,910 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (627 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack scores 51.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.5% and 52.2% — from 48K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 48K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack win rate?
Playing the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack, White wins 48.7%, draws 6.2% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 48K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack perform best?
The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 53.6% (15K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.9% in Blitz (29K games) against 48.4% in Rapid (3.0K games).
How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack?
The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 53.4%, draws 1.3% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 110 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 524 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.8%, draws 6.1% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 47.6%, draws 6.5% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.3%, draws 6.5% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 50.4%, draws 5.9% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.4%, draws 7.0% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 43.9%, draws 8.9% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games.
What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 43.7%, draws 12.7% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 105 Lichess games.
Is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack a good opening?
The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Normal Attack is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.7% of its games and loses 45.0%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.