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King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line

11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.8%Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 46.6%Based on 11K games
0%45.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 46.6%
Outcome Distribution
42.4%6.8%50.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...e6
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line
Analyzen=11K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.8%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line has a 45.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.0% and 46.6%), based on 11K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 35%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 39.4% win rate (15 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.7% win rate (54 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.9% win rate (179 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.5% win rate (397 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.6% win rate (1,034 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.6% win rate (2,793 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.0% win rate (4,608 games)
  • 2500+: 35.0% win rate (1,467 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (45%), worst in Classical (25%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 40.9% win rate (3,184 games)
  • Blitz: 42.9% win rate (6,717 games)
  • Rapid: 45.4% win rate (608 games)
  • Classical: 25.3% win rate (40 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (77 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (87 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.2% expected score (151 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (203 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (303 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (626 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (88 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (656 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,889 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (233 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (985 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (3,412 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (205 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 37.2% expected score (979 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (466 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 33.0% expected score (22 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
48.9%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
49.9%
King's Indian Defense: Smyslov Variation
48.7%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 11K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.6% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.9%) outperforms Rapid (46.2%) by 7.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 93.2 (decisive), meaning 93.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line has a 47.9% (90% CI: 41.8%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 179 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line has a 51.8% (90% CI: 47.7%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 397 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line has a 50.2% (90% CI: 47.6%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line has a 47.5% (90% CI: 45.9%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line has a 57.6% (90% CI: 55.5%-59.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line has a 53.9% (90% CI: 52.5%-55.4%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.8%) win rate for white (6.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line has a 46.2% (90% CI: 42.9%-49.5%) win rate for white (608 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.