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Nimzo-Indian Defense

80 variations · 5.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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5.Nf3
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

48.1%

45%55%
Floor48.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 5.3M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.3M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#32 of 62
Games in this context
5.3M
Best context
52.1% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Worst context
42.0% at 2500+ Rapid
Variations measured
80
Average game length
35 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main LineBest here
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.Qc2 d5 5.a3 Bxc3+ 6.Qxc3 Ne4
Floor 54.6% · 632 games
57.8%
#2Nimzo-Indian Defense: Rubinstein System, Hübner Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.e3 c5 5.Bd3 Nc6 6.Nf3 Bxc3+ 7.bxc3 d6
Floor 52.4% · 3.1K games
53.8%
#3Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Botvinnik Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.f3 d5 5.a3 Bxc3+ 6.bxc3 c5 7.e3 O-O 8.cxd5 Nxd5
Floor 50.6% · 1.5K games
52.7%
#4Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.Qc2 Nc6 5.Nf3 d6
Floor 50.2% · 14K games
50.9%
#5Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Vitolins-Adorjan Gambit
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.Qc2 O-O 5.a3 Bxc3+ 6.Qxc3 b5
Floor 50.0% · 1.6K games
52.0%
#6Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.e3 O-O 5.Bd3 d5 6.Nf3 c5 7.O-O b6
Floor 49.5% · 2.0K games
51.3%
#7Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Bronstein Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.e3 O-O 5.Bd3 d5 6.Nf3 c5 7.O-O dxc4 8.Bxc4 Nbd7
Floor 49.2% · 2.0K games
51.1%
#8Nimzo-Indian Defense
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Bb4
Floor 49.2% · 860K games
49.3%
#9Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.e3 b6
Floor 48.9% · 161K games
49.1%
#10Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Romanovsky Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.f3 d5 5.a3 Bxc3+ 6.bxc3 c5 7.cxd5 Nxd5 8.dxc5 f5
Floor 48.8% · 699 games
51.9%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.8% at 0-999, 45.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (43 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (9,664 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (9,790 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (2,414 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.9% expected score (107 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (37,532 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (42,135 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (8,820 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (121 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (371 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (92,281 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (131,263 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (27,360 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (721 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (1,320 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (175,721 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (303,898 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (68,520 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (2,968 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (1,838 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (270,053 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (546,564 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (125,937 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (7,890 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (1,100 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (331,322 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (772,681 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (178,074 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (11,172 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (306 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (316,775 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (685,291 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (133,608 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (5,632 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.5% expected score (65 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (295,585 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (462,589 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (48,372 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (1,208 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (107,632 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (80,539 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (4,214 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (346 games)

80 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line632 games
57.8%Floor 54.6%
2
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Hübner Variation, Main Line3.1K games
54.8%Floor 53.3%
3
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Rubinstein System, Hübner Variation3.1K games
53.8%Floor 52.4%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Dilworth Gambit29K games
51.4%Floor 50.9%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Botvinnik Variation1.5K games
52.7%Floor 50.6%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation19K games
50.8%Floor 50.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Mikenas Attack12K games
50.9%Floor 50.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Milner-Barry Variation14K games
50.9%Floor 50.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Vitolins-Adorjan Gambit1.6K games
52.0%Floor 50.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Accelerated178K games
49.9%Floor 49.7%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation172K games
49.8%Floor 49.6%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Keres Variation2.0K games
51.3%Floor 49.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense860K games
49.3%Floor 49.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Bronstein Variation2.0K games
51.1%Floor 49.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation161K games
49.1%Floor 48.9%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Leningrad Variation650K games
49.0%Floor 48.9%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Romanovsky Variation699 games
51.9%Floor 48.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred23K games
49.3%Floor 48.7%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation154K games
48.8%Floor 48.6%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Keres Defense16K games
49.2%Floor 48.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Shocron Gambit1.0K games
51.0%Floor 48.4%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, O'Kelly Variation4.8K games
49.5%Floor 48.3%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation265K games
48.4%Floor 48.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Pirc Variation12K games
48.9%Floor 48.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Simagin Variation3.9K games
49.5%Floor 48.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation158K games
48.3%Floor 48.1%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Schlechter Defense22K games
48.6%Floor 48.1%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Carlsbad Variation707 games
51.1%Floor 48.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation712K games
47.9%Floor 47.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Reshevsky Variation49K games
48.2%Floor 47.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Bronstein (Byrne) Variation2.6K games
49.4%Floor 47.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Romanovsky Gambit5.8K games
48.7%Floor 47.6%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, with Ne410K games
48.4%Floor 47.6%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System31K games
48.0%Floor 47.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Berlin Variation, Steiner Variation698 games
50.5%Floor 47.4%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Zurich Variation23K games
47.8%Floor 47.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation52K games
47.5%Floor 47.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Hübner Variation43K games
47.5%Floor 47.1%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Korchnoi Variation26K games
47.5%Floor 47.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Bernstein Defense7.8K games
47.8%Floor 46.9%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: St. Petersburg Variation, Fischer Variation1.7K games
48.9%Floor 46.9%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Spielmann Variation, Karlsbad Variation490 games
50.6%Floor 46.9%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense20K games
47.4%Floor 46.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Bernstein Defense, Exchange Line6.2K games
47.8%Floor 46.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Hübner Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Main Line2.8K games
48.3%Floor 46.7%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation664 games
49.9%Floor 46.7%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation411K games
46.7%Floor 46.6%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Bishop Attack, Classical Defense40K games
47.1%Floor 46.6%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Line143K games
46.7%Floor 46.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Rubinstein System88K games
46.8%Floor 46.5%
Every Nimzo-Indian Defense variation, by name80
Analyze Nimzo-Indian Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense family scores 48.1% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 48.1% — from 5.3M Lichess games across 80 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
5.3M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense win rate?

Across the Nimzo-Indian Defense's 80 variations, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 5.3M rated games from Lichess.

How many Nimzo-Indian Defense variations are there?

80 Nimzo-Indian Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense family performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 48.9% (1.3M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzo-Indian Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.0% in Blitz (3.0M games) against 49.1% in Rapid (597K games).

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense?

Nimzo-Indian Defense games are 95.2% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense a good opening family?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 45.7% and loses 49.5%. Results differ between its 80 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.