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Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation

52K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.5%Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.9%Based on 52K games
0%47.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.9%
Outcome Distribution
44.5%5.9%49.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Bd3
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation
Analyzen=52K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 47.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.2% and 47.9%), based on 52K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.5% win rate (187 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.7% win rate (646 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.7% win rate (1,740 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.6% win rate (3,611 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.7% win rate (6,115 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.8% win rate (9,204 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.0% win rate (10,625 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.5% win rate (13,425 games)
  • 2500+: 38.5% win rate (6,860 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.8% win rate (18 games)
  • Bullet: 45.5% win rate (16,362 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (31,798 games)
  • Rapid: 45.1% win rate (4,013 games)
  • Classical: 41.8% win rate (222 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (89 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (79 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (311 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (279 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (724 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (876 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (137 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (1,318 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (1,900 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (374 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (2,043 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (3,402 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (618 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (43 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (2,575 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (5,601 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (945 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (81 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (2,977 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (6,701 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (891 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (56 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (3,412 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (9,195 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (800 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (2,913 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (3,765 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (176 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Indian Defense
48.4%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation
50.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Leningrad Variation
48.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation
50.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
49.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation
51.8%
Continuations (10)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Ragozin Variation
51.6%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Sämisch Deferred
52.7%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Bishop Attack, Classical Defense
50.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Bishop Attack
50.9%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System
49.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred
48.3%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Schlechter Defense
48.7%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Classical Defense
49.6%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Botvinnik System
51.7%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation
43.6%
Analyze Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 52K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (3.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.5%) outperforms Classical (47.2%) by 3.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 44.2%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 187 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 646 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.2%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 11.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.2%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.9%) win rate for white (32K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.7%-47.3%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 41.7%-52.7%) win rate for white (222 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.0%.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.