Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation
211K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.2%.
Measured over 211K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 211K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 211K
- Best context
- 57.4% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 50.0% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 52.7% at 0-999, 59.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (66 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (100 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (21 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (520 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (367 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (92 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (1,138 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (972 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (251 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (2,542 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (3,163 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (557 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (32 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (5,551 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (9,582 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (1,579 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (96 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (10,076 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (26,522 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (4,482 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (357 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (14,648 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (40,187 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (6,247 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (444 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (21,821 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (39,653 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (4,119 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (99 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (8,243 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (6,895 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (354 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation scores 54.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.8% and 54.2% — from 211K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 211K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation, White wins 51.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 211K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.1% (15K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 54.0% in Blitz (127K games) against 52.7% in Rapid (18K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 50.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 188 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 984 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 51.0%, draws 2.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 51.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 50.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 66K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.6%, draws 6.9% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 65K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 127K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.8%, draws 5.7% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 47.3%, draws 9.4% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.8% of its games and loses 43.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.