Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
265K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.9%.
Measured over 265K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 265K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 265K
- Best context
- 58.4% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 45.3% at 1600-1799 Classical
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.2% at 0-999, 59.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (645 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (610 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (143 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (2,405 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (3,001 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (507 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (5,359 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (9,863 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (1,838 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (48 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (8,954 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (22,234 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (5,151 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (210 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (10,599 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (34,303 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (9,713 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (539 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (10,712 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (34,114 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (11,563 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (637 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (10,077 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (27,330 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (6,282 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (291 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (11,016 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (24,595 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (2,164 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (46 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (4,714 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (4,604 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (181 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation scores 51.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.5% and 51.9% — from 265K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 265K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, White wins 49.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 265K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 58.0% (9.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.0% in Blitz (161K games) against 49.1% in Rapid (38K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 46.6%, draws 1.9% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 50.6%, draws 2.3% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 50.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 44K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 54.8%, draws 6.4% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.0%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 64K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 161K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 46.4%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 43.4%, draws 7.2% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.5% of its games and loses 46.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.