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Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation

190K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.5%Range (90% confident): 46.3% – 46.7%Based on 190K games
0%46.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.3% – 46.7%
Outcome Distribution
43.6%5.7%50.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.Qc2
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation
Analyzen=190K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.7%

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 46.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.3% and 46.7%), based on 190K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.2% win rate (454 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.2% win rate (2,425 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.3% win rate (7,036 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.7% win rate (16,147 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.7% win rate (29,134 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.2% win rate (44,271 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.2% win rate (45,991 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.2% win rate (34,968 games)
  • 2500+: 38.6% win rate (9,150 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in UltraBullet (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 40.8% win rate (34 games)
  • Bullet: 44.5% win rate (40,958 games)
  • Blitz: 43.3% win rate (119,294 games)
  • Rapid: 43.3% win rate (27,661 games)
  • Classical: 42.9% win rate (1,629 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (178 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (236 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (39 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (1,015 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (1,192 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (215 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (2,076 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (4,098 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (842 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (3,603 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (9,989 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (2,449 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (91 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (5,651 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (18,005 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (5,142 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (329 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (7,269 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (28,206 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (8,153 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (636 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (7,672 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (30,626 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (7,245 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (446 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (8,917 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (22,597 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (3,360 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (93 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (4,577 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (4,345 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.0% expected score (216 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Indian Defense
48.4%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation
50.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Leningrad Variation
48.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation
50.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
49.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation
51.8%
Continuations (3)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation
49.2%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line
40.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, San Remo Variation
50.2%
Analyze Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 190K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 54.0% win rate for white (2.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.4%) outperforms Classical (46.9%) by 4.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 47.8%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 454 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.4%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.2%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 12.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.8%) win rate for white (41K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.9%) win rate for white (119K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.5%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 44.9%-49.0%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.2%.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.