Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line
632 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
57.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 61.1%.
Measured over 632 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 632 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 632
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 42.6% at 0-999, 30.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 64.8% expected score (29 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 63.7% expected score (68 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 67.1% expected score (22 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (74 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.9% expected score (49 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 74.2% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (100 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (55 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 28.1% expected score (19 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (58 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (32 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line scores 57.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.6% and 61.1% — from 632 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 632+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line, Black wins 55.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 632 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 61.9% (104 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 57.3% in Blitz (356 games) against 56.1% in Rapid (171 games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 60.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 36.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.9%. It rests on 104 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 57.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.6%. It rests on 145 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 57.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 37.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.1%. It rests on 172 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.2%, draws 9.2% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 113 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 54.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 356 Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 53.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 171 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Main Line is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 55.6% of its games and loses 40.0%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.