Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System
31K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.5%.
Measured over 31K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 31K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 31K
- Best context
- 50.3% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Worst context
- 44.7% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.4%
- Draws
- 5.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.6% at 0-999, 47.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (110 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (92 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 62.3% expected score (23 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (390 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (437 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (61 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (857 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (1,218 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (185 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (1,508 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (3,178 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (516 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (33 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,904 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (5,514 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (983 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (54 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,669 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (4,428 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (871 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (52 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (1,496 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (3,128 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (345 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (693 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (816 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (101 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System scores 48.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 48.5% — from 31K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 31K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Black wins 45.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 31K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 49.0% (5.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.7% in Blitz (19K games) against 50.6% in Rapid (3.1K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 225 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.8%, draws 1.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 889 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.6% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.6%, draws 6.7% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 34.7%, draws 22.2% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.5%, draws 8.1% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 46.2%, draws 11.8% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 164 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.2% of its games and loses 49.2%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.