Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation
19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.8%.
Measured over 19K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 11.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 19K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 19K
- Best context
- 52.0% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 46.5% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 88.8%
- Draws
- 11.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 50.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (21 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (61 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (61 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 20.3% expected score (17 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (186 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (241 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.4% expected score (56 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (413 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (866 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 35.5% expected score (171 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (865 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (2,496 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (440 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,020 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (3,207 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (636 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (24 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,349 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (3,151 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (334 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 23.8% expected score (29 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (1,221 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,370 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (253 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (68 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation scores 49.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.6% and 49.8% — from 19K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 19K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation, White wins 43.6%, draws 11.2% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 19K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 51.3% (2.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.6% in Blitz (11K games) against 45.9% in Rapid (1.9K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 88.8 (moderately decisive), meaning 88.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 40.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 140 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 41.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 487 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 45.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 45.4%, draws 6.6% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 45.5%, draws 8.3% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 33.1%, draws 36.4% and loses 30.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 50 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 43.9%, draws 11.6% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 44.8%, draws 9.5% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 37.2%, draws 17.4% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 26.0%, draws 41.5% and loses 32.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 166 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Gligoric System, Exchange Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 43.6% of its games and loses 45.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.