TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation

664 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score49.9%Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 53.0%Based on 664 games
0%49.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 53.0%
Outcome Distribution
44.9%10.0%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Ne8
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation
Analyzen=664
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness90%
Draw Rate10.0%

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation has a 49.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.7% and 53.0%), based on 664 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 39% → 36%

1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1400-1599: 38.5% win rate (5 games)
  • 1600-1799: 73.3% win rate (6 games)
  • 1800-1999: 61.9% win rate (9 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (89 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.8% win rate (368 games)
  • 2500+: 36.3% win rate (187 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (57%), worst in Bullet (41%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 41.0% win rate (85 games)
  • Blitz: 44.8% win rate (551 games)
  • Rapid: 56.9% win rate (24 games)
  • Classical: 45.5% win rate (4 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399—————
1400-1599————
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 71.8% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (72 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (35 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (320 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.9% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (146 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Indian Defense
48.4%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation
50.0%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Leningrad Variation
48.8%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation
50.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation
49.5%
Nimzo-Indian Defense: Kmoch Variation
51.8%
Analyze Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation win rate?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 42.0%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 664 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 45.9% win rate for white (368 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (46.4%) outperforms Bullet (39.9%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation has a sharpness score of 90.0 (decisive), meaning 90.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 41.6%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 368 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 40.0%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 187 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 17.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 42.9%-49.9%) win rate for white (551 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.

Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Sämisch Variation, Capablanca Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.2% (90% CI: 42.0%-48.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.