Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation
1.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.8%.
Measured over 1.9K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.9K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.9K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.3%
- Draws
- 5.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.7% at 0-999, 45.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (36 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (53 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.8% expected score (41 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (142 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (41 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (70 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (232 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (74 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (65 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (266 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (128 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (57 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (179 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (99 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 39.4% expected score (36 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (102 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (32 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (95 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (43 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation scores 48.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.1% and 49.8% — from 1.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation, Black wins 45.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 1.9K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 55.1% (224 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.0% in Blitz (1.1K games) against 48.9% in Rapid (392 games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 224 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.8%, draws 5.1% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 378 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 465 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 39.4%, draws 9.8% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 340 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.5%, draws 6.0% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 173 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.4%, draws 8.7% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 131 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 342 Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.9%, draws 6.1% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.4%, draws 7.0% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 392 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.1% of its games and loses 49.2%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.