1.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 52.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.2% and 54.0%), based on 1.9K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 48% → 45%
Similar across time controls (~50%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.3%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K rated games from Lichess.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 52.0% win rate for white (378 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (50.0%) outperforms Rapid (47.6%) by 2.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 42.8% (90% CI: 37.4%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 224 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 378 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 43.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 465 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 46.4%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 340 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 9.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 173 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 43.8%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 131 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 43.8%-52.6%) win rate for white (342 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.
In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-52.5%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.
In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 43.5%-51.8%) win rate for white (392 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Noa Variation, Botvinnik Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.3%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.